Oil Prices Down – Who Are The Economy’s Winners and Losers?

Oil prices have fallen well below their historical norm, but could go even lower; see the forces driving oil prices and who are the winners and losers from the bear market in oil.
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The popular consensus seems to be solidifying – the worst may not be over for oil. Does this pervasive negative sentiment actually mean that oil prices may finally be near the bottom?

As investment themes go, the direction of oil prices may be about as far-reaching as they come. Obviously, commodity speculators have skin in the game, but so do depositors shopping for certificate of deposit (CD) rates, people looking to buy or refinance a home and stock market investors. Even if you don’t fit into any of those categories, if you own one of the 250 million motor vehicles in the United States, you have a stake in this, too.

Widespread impact of low oil prices

There are both winners and losers when oil prices rise or fall.

Who benefits from high oil prices

Commodity investors. If oil prices were to rise, commodity investors with long positions would benefit, but given the extended fall of oil prices, there are also a great many short investors who would get hurt.

The stock market. The stock market would probably consider an upturn in oil as a good sign, given that the plunge in oil prices over the last couple years has been viewed as a symptom of global economic weakness.

Who is harmed by high oil prices

CD account holders. On the negative side of the coin, people who locked into high CD rates would likely be kicking themselves, as an inflationary oil price rise would be likely to push rates on newer CDs higher.

Homeowners and homebuyers. People who did not pull the trigger on buying or refinancing a home might find themselves on the outside looking in, as an inflationary environment would be almost certain to send mortgage rates higher.

Car drivers. Of course, all those motorists who have been enjoying lower gasoline prices would find themselves once again paying more at the pump.

How low can oil prices go?

In less than two years, oil prices have dropped from over $100 a barrel to around $30. The question is, which of those extremes is closer to normal, and how much lower could oil go?

Over the past 30 years, oil prices have averaged around $53 a barrel after adjusting for inflation. So, while today’s prices are below average, they are actually closer to normal than when oil was at $100.

As for how low they can go, on an inflation-adjusted basis, oil prices in late 1998 fell $37 below their long-term average. At today’s prices, that would be the equivalent of oil getting down to around $16.

Why oil prices are difficult to turn around

Of course, historical price ranges are just an indication of how oil typically behaves. They are not formal boundaries that confine today’s prices. Even with oil dropping well below its inflation-adjusted norm, it may take a while before prices turn around. At extremes, oil prices tend to acquire a momentum, which means they are as difficult to turn around as oil tankers.

Here are three reasons why:

1. Inventory

U.S. oil inventory is at an all-time high. Think of this as an overstocked store – until some of that inventory is sold off, supply and demand fundamentals are not going to put upward pressure on prices.

2. Capacity

Some oil wells, especially those requiring special measures like hydraulic fracturing (fracking), are not profitable to drill at current oil prices. This means that low prices over time will start to thin out the numbers of wells in production, but those that are already up and running can continue to be exploited until they run dry. This is another reason why supply and demand fundamentals take a while to reshape.

3. Speculation

Besides the pricing forces oil is subject to as an essential commodity, it is also a popular investment for speculators, meaning that investor sentiment can drive prices further than they would go based on fundamentals alone. This means that the turning point often does not come until investor sentiment – good or bad – has peaked.

Current oil prices are nearly 17 percent below futures prices just six months out, suggesting that there is a great deal of short-term speculation depressing current prices. A look at all the negative media coverage lately about the outlook for oil also supports the impression that bearish sentiment is reaching a peak.

One thing about oil – it certainly commands a starring role on the world economic stage. A couple years ago, it was causing consternation as its price soared above $100 a barrel. Now it is a cause for concern because its price has moved so radically in the opposite direction. Still, enjoy the low gas prices and low mortgage rates that come with cheap oil because it may not be long before oil prices take another dramatic turn to reshape economic conditions.

Comment: How have you benefited or been harmed from low oil prices?

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January 21, 2015

| MoneyRates.com Senior Financial Analyst, CFA

rise of speculation

It was not long ago that people were fretting about the possibility of $5-a-gallon gasoline. Now, seeing gas prices steadily backtrack toward $2 a gallon may seem like a dream come true for many consumers.

However, that trend is going to such an extreme that the dream could turn into a nightmare. Here are seven reasons to worry about plummeting oil prices.

1. Geopolitical tensions

Iran and Russia are two of the world’s most dangerous nations, and their economies are both very dependent on oil. Many Americans might take some added pleasure in knowing that falling oil prices hurt those countries, but the plunge has been so steep that those countries might feel threatened enough to lash out in retaliation. A milder price decline would have had the effect of slowing those countries down economically without potentially destabilizing them.

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2. The indication of global economic weakness

Rapidly falling oil prices may cause some new problems, but what worries many investors is that they are a symptom of an existing problem. Not too long ago, some analysts warned that the appetite for oil on the part of the world’s large, developing economies would soon become insatiable. Now there is concern about what the slowing of this demand growth says about the overall growth rate in those economies.

3. U.S. jobs at risk

Foreign economies are not the only concern. There are more than 170,000 U.S. jobs directly involved with oil drilling and extraction, and that does not include all the other businesses that support that industry or provide services to oil-producing areas.

4. Financial sector exposure

The oil price boom sparked heavy investment in new exploration and extraction. With the drop in prices now making many of those investments unprofitable, banks that lent heavily to finance oil sector investments might start to see an upturn in defaults.

5. The rise of speculation

To some extent, the downturn in oil prices was probably a correction of natural market forces, but now speculation seems to be playing a lead role in exacerbating the price collapse. Short-term oil futures are now trading at nearly 30 percent below long-term futures, suggesting that the current price is being artificially depressed by speculators looking for a quick profit by betting on oil continuing to fall. Overly speculative markets are neither stable nor healthy.

6. The setback to conservation and sustainability efforts

One of the stocks that has been hurt as oil prices have come down is electric car maker Tesla Motors. This is indicative of how cheaper oil dulls enthusiasm for energy conservation and sustainability efforts, but without those efforts the world will just become more dependent on oil in the long run.

7. The impact on future price cycles

When oil prices fall, exploration and production projects are curtailed. This ultimately slows supply and sets the stage for the next upturn in prices. The concern is that a drastic drop in prices could exacerbate both capacity cuts and the ultimate rebound in prices.

Oil may well be the single most important commodity in the world. It says something disturbing, then, that something so important could be priced so inefficiently as to range from over $100 dollars a barrel to under $50 in the space of less than a year.

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Your responses to ‘7 reasons to worry about cheap oil’

Richard Barrington has been a Senior Financial Analyst for MoneyRates. He has appeared on Fox Business News and NPR, and has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, USA Today, CNBC and many other publications. Richard has over 30 years of experience in financial services. He has earned the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation from the Association of Investment Management and Research (now the “CFA Institute”).